CSIRO says the national outlook is bright and in our hands

A groundbreaking report has found that Australia is well placed to secure prosperity over the coming decades despite the challenges of an uncertain and possible resource-constrained future.

However, this prosperity is not a given. Australia’s future will be shaped by innovation and technology uptake, and the choices we make as a society will be paramount.

The Australian National Outlook, released last Thursday, is the most comprehensive quantitative analysis yet of the interactions between economic growth, water-energy-food use, environmental outcomes and living standards in Australia.

CSIRO Executive Director Dr Alex Wonhas said National Outlook focused on the “physical economy” that contributes to about 75% of natural resource use and produces about 25% of Australia’s GDP.

“The National Outlook is a first attempt to understand and analyse the connections in Australia’s physical environment many decades into the future,” Wonhas said. “It has a particular focus on understanding two aspects: the ‘water-energy-food nexus’ and the prospects for Australia’s materials and energy-intensive industries.”

National Outlook finds a number of key insights and potential opportunities across the Australian economy.

“For example, we find strong growth prospects for Australia’s agrifood production which are forecast to increase at least 50% by 2050, provided long-term productivity improvements can be maintained in line with historical rates,” he said.

“There’s also the possibility of a win-win for farmers with potential growth in agrifood exports and new income sources for rural landholders through carbon farming on less productive land.”

National Outlook also finds as Australia’s population grows, so too does water demand.

“Despite projections of a doubling of our water use, Australia could meet this growth — as well as enhance urban water security and avoid increased environmental pressures — through increased water recycling, desalination and integrated catchment management,” Wonhas said.

The results of CSIRO’s first National Outlook show that energy and other resources could remain a pillar of the Australian economy well into the future and that energy-intensive industries could be well positioned to continue to grow, even in scenarios where the world is taking global action to significantly limit greenhouse gas emissions.

“The key to this success will be innovation and application of smart technologies,” Wonhas said. “We hope the National Outlook will help Australia chart its future in an increasingly complex and interconnected world.”

The National Outlook explores over 20 possible futures for Australia out to 2050 against the backdrop of the past 40 years. The work was undertaken by a team of 40 CSIRO experts and university collaborators, and draws extensively on observed data and analysis.

It utilises a world-class suite of nine linked models, includes input from more than 80 experts and stakeholders from over 10 organisations and has undergone rigorous international peer review.

National Outlook is underpinned by more than 10 journal papers, including a Nature paper. The report is available at www.csiro.au/nationaloutlook.