39,000 jobs on the line as Aust car manufacturing folds

The demise of Australia’s car manufacturing industry could see up to 39,600 jobs lost, mostly in Victoria and South Australia, Productivity Commission modelling has predicted.

The modelling suggests that, in the worst-case scenario, 27,430 jobs would be lost in Victoria and 10,670 in South Australia in 2016-17 after the end of production by Ford, GM Holden and Toyota. This estimate includes 11,200 direct car manufacturing jobs and 28,100 jobs in the car component supply chain.

Some commentators claim that the commission’s modelling is overly optimistic as it fails to take into account additional unemployment after five years, The Guardian has reported.

Despite the commission’s promise that the modelling would be released in February, it is still consulting industry stakeholders over the forecasting. The delay means figures for forecast job losses will likely not be released until after the South Australian state election, which is to be held on 15 March.

“A modelling workshop was held on 4 March at which some preliminary modelling results were discussed with a range of stakeholders,” The Guardian reported a Productivity Commission spokesperson as saying.

“As part of its normal processes, the commission is taking stakeholder feedback into account as well as having the modelling formally refereed. The commission will publicly release the modelling, as is its normal practice. A release date has not yet been finalised.”

While the commission’s modelling predicts a rosier picture than earlier modelling from Allen Consulting, it shows that the cessation of car manufacturing would reduce SA’s gross domestic product by 2.7% and Victoria’s by 2.2% longer term.

After the Adelaide Mitsubishi plant closed in 2008, many workers who lost their jobs had difficulty finding full-time work and were forced to settle for part-time or casual work. The South Australian Labor government says that the Mitsubishi closure occurred when the state’s economy was healthier; it warned that Holden workers will find it harder to secure alternative manufacturing jobs.

To read the full article from The Guardian, click here.